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The price level below is ₱150.31 per kilo LIVEWEIGHT, the PSA broiler farmgate figure for 2026-06-30 as it stands in this site's archive. The seasonal lean is a percentage of whatever the market is paying, so it moves with this number. PSA farmgate. The full series is at /presyo/broiler-farmgate.

16 complete calendar years of the PSA broiler farmgate series, 2010-01 to 2025-12. Each month is measured against its OWN year average, which is what strips out the long climb in the price level and leaves the shape of the year. 100 means a month that paid what the rest of its year paid. The placement column counts back a 35-day cycle, rounded to the nearest month. 1 of the 12 months clear a two-sided sign test at 5%; the rest are printed with their index and no peso figure, because an index alone is arithmetic rather than evidence, and every series has a highest month whether or not anything is happening in it.

Why ten of those twelve rows say nothing

Ten of the twelve broiler months on this archive carry no signal, and the page says so instead of ranking them. Any series has a highest month and a lowest month by arithmetic alone, so an index on its own is not evidence that a month behaves differently; the count of years that agree is. December is the case that makes the point: it has the highest broiler index of any month and only 10 of 16 years above their own year average, which is close enough to a coin flip that a sign test will not call it. A page that recommended December off that index would be selling you noise.

The test is a two-sided sign test at 5%: of the 16 complete years in the record, 10 had December above their own year average, which happens by chance often enough that the page will not call it. On sixteen years the bar is 13 of 16. Nothing about that is a judgement on December. It is a statement about how much sixteen years can carry.

Every month is measured against its OWN year average, not against the other years. That is what strips the price trend out: the broiler farmgate has climbed a long way since 2010, and a raw monthly average would report that climb as a season. What is left after the deflation is the shape of the year, and 100 means a month that paid exactly what the rest of its year paid.

Native chicken, where the record does say something

The price below is ₱223.95 per kilo LIVEWEIGHT, the PSA farmgate figure for 2026-06-30 as it stands in this site's archive. Liveweight, not dressed, and not per bird. PSA farmgate. The full series is at /presyo/native-chicken-farmgate.

16 complete calendar years of the PSA native chicken farmgate series, 2010-01 to 2025-12. Each month is measured against its OWN year average, which is what strips out the long climb in the price level and leaves the shape of the year. 100 means a month that paid what the rest of its year paid. The placement column counts back a 120-day cycle, rounded to the nearest month. 2 of the 12 months clear a two-sided sign test at 5%; the rest are printed with their index and no peso figure, because an index alone is arithmetic rather than evidence, and every series has a highest month whether or not anything is happening in it.

December is 16 of 16. Not thirteen, not fourteen: every complete year in the archive has the native farmgate price above its own year average in December, which is about as clean as a record of this length gets. On a 120-day cycle that means placing chicks in August, and the Boholano growth curve at /tools/native-growout says what the bird weighs when it gets there.

What this is not

This is a record of what happened, not a prediction of what will. Sixteen years of a month running above its own year average is a real pattern and it is still not a promise about next year, and none of it survives an event the record has not seen: an HPAI cull, an import surge, a fuel spike or a typhoon in the wrong province moves a farmgate price further in a fortnight than any of these seasonal figures move it in a year.

And seasonality is not the biggest thing in this price. The whole spread between the strongest and weakest month on either series is a few percent, which a bad quarter for feed prices swallows without noticing. The calendar leans; it does not decide. What decides is at/tools/break-even.